By Walter L. Perry, John Gordon
Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have proven that U.S. forces want more-effective innovations and methods to behavior counterinsurgency. they're going to probably face related, abnormal conflict strategies from destiny enemies. This monograph examines the character of the modern rebel risk and offers insights on utilizing operational research options to aid intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies.
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Additional resources for Analytic Support to Intelligence in Counterinsurgencies
Who are the leaders and principal deputies? Where are they located? What is the relation among the group members, between groups? Insurgent goals What are the insurgents’ goals? Are they striving to overthrow the existing government or gain autonomy for a region? How can the government take advantage of each goal? Assets and capabilities How are the groups disseminating their messages? What is the principal nature of the violence committed by each group? Small-Scale Insurgency At this stage, it is known that an insurgency exists in suﬃcient numbers and strength to cause mischief.
4 Once the weights have been calculated, a Bayesian classiﬁcation algorithm is applied as follows: 1. Calculate a square matrix of distance diﬀerences using an appropriate weighted distance metric. 2. Create a class probability density for each class to be considered. That is, calculate the probability that an observation (set of observed factor values) is actually a weapons cache. ”6 The set of classes might be richer if needed. For example, a cache may be mobile or stationary, large or small, a storage location for special purpose weapons (such as IEDs).
To answer the questions, we turn to intelligence analysis, using some of the traditional tools of operational analysis and adding a few new tools. Before we proceed, however, it is important to note two distinguishing characteristics of recent insurgencies that aﬀect how we apply analytic tools to answer the research questions. t Insurgent activity is localized. When carrying out their operations, insurgents are likely to subordinate global objectives to local objectives. This can be seen in Iraq today.